Saturday, January 2, 2010

Case-Shiller: Housing has a ways to go before we bottom out

I came across this chart from Barry Ritzholt's site, The Big Picture , which had 100 year housing data, adjusted for inflation.



Referencing to the steady-state index value of 110, we still have about a 25% drop in average house price before we reach a steady-state value.

What's clear is that over the last 60 years, housing value grows only with inflation.  In other words, it's not a sound investment, unless the goal is to turn a house / condo into a revenue-generating asset (eg a rental unit).  Housing is a poor long-term investment strategy.

There are better long-term buy-and-hold strategies, the most consistent for the average person simply being an index fund (to be explored in the next post).

No comments: